AI Revolution
Will Jobs Be Replaced or Merely Changed Forever?
By Hardi Gokani, Director of AI Product management, Grainger and Austin Janke, Manager of Data & Analytics, Nissan Americas
In September 2024, it was reported [1] that 39 percent of Americans aged 18 to 64 have used generative AI—just two years after the release of ChatGPT—with 28 percent indicating they used the tool at work. For context, this is 95 percent faster than adoption rates of the Internet and personal computer (PC), which took two and three years, respectively, to reach an adoption rate of 20 percent. Considering the blistering pace of AI adoption, workers everywhere are asking a fundamental question: will AI simply change my way of working, or will it replace my job all together?
As we try answering this question, one thing is clear—AI will change our way of working. In a joint-study [2] conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Harvard Business School, consultants using generative AI were able to perform certain tasks 25 percent faster, and 40 percent more accurately, than their colleagues who were not using generative AI. These “inside the frontier” tasks spanned a broad spectrum of activity, with some requiring creativity and persuasiveness and others necessitating analytical thinking. As leaders continue seeking ways to increase efficiencies within their organizations, results like these show a clear advantage from incorporating AI into day-to-day work.
The argument for AI changing work is further evidenced within our own experience. At Grainger, customer inventory information is collected to recommend solutions that meet a variety of maintenance, repair, and operational needs. Before the introduction of an AI-powered mobile application, field team members collected and evaluated data manually in Microsoft Excel. This task was tedious and burdensome, often preventing associates from spending time to build meaningful relationships with customers from whom they were receiving the information. By leveraging Computer Vision and AI, associates have been able to reduce data collection time by 50 percent, allowing time to instead be allocated to more meaningful and strategic tasks.
With clarity brought to the question of whether jobs will change from the introduction of AI, the hard question remains—will AI replace jobs all together? This question is a bit tougher, as the answer is both “yes” and “no.” According to a variety of research, the balance of work—rather than the number of jobs—will be impacted most by AI. Harvard Business Review [3] reports that for every five tasks removed from the middle class, 80 percent of them will be moved to lower-wage classes, while the remaining 20 percent will be shifted to high-wage groups. In a separate publication [4] by the World Economic Forum, a shift within the Chinese manufacturing sector was cited, showing a move from low-skilled labor and towards high-skilled labor. We’ve observed a related phenomena within the context of our own work, specifically within automotive supply chains. Albeit a different application, the shift from manual picking to automated retrieval has taken a similar path. As more complex systems and machines are introduced, the need for medium-and-low skilled operators is replaced by a need for highly-skilled, competent professionals to maintain and service the intricate machinery.
With all of this in mind, we would be remiss not to address hiring outlooks when answering the question, “Will AI replace jobs?” According to predictions by the World Economic Forum, the rise of innovative technology will eliminate 85 million jobs by 2025. They continue, however, by stating they expect 97 million new jobs to be brought in by the introduction innovative technologies—a net gain of 12-million jobs overall. Where, though, will these jobs be? In the World Economic Forum survey [4], respondents indicated that they expect to work in AI-linked fields, such as data science and business intelligence. Over the next five years, these and related areas are expected to grow 30-35 percent, with that number approaching 50 percent in controlled states like China. This, in a nutshell, supports the argument that it’s the type of work, not the number of jobs, that will really be changing as AI continues increasing its prevalence in the workplace.
So, will AI merely change our way of working, or will it replace our jobs? Only time will provide the answer. From our perspective, though, it’s clear AI will—and already is—changing our way of working. As rapid adoption continues casting a shadow over the Internet and PC revolutions, users everywhere will continue finding ways to augment daily tasks and shift focus towards more strategic elements of their jobs.
Resources
- Bick, Alexander , Blandin, Adam , and David J. Deming. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, no. 2024-027A (2024). Accessed September 28, 2024.
- Dell’Acqua, Fabrizio, Edward McFowland, Ethan Mollick, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf , Katherine C Kellogg, Saran Rajendran, Lisa Krayer, François Candelon, and Karim R Lakhani. “Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality.” Harvard Business School, September 22, 2023.
- Fleming, Martin. “Ai Is Changing Work - and Leaders Need to Adapt.” Harvard Business Review, March 24, 2020.
- Rayner, Mark. “‘Nearly Half (49%) of Companies Expect Adopting AI to Create Jobs, Well Ahead of the 23% of Respondents Who Expect It to Displace Jobs.’” World Economic Forum, August 14, 2023.
Austin Janke
Currently based in Nashville, Tennessee, Austin Janke has spent nearly a decade in the automotive industry, currently serving as Manager of Data & Analytics in the Nissan Americas Supply Chain Innovation team. With current responsibility for data science, analytics, and data migration projects, Austin has spent the last two years identifying ways to further digitalize the supply chain while driving the business forward via short and long-term strategies. Austin received his MBA at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management in 2024, and has spent time previously in procurement and business optimization functions.
Hardi Gokani
Hardi is a seasoned technology leader with expertise in product management and engineering, particularly in machine learning-driven products. With nearly a decade of experience, she has a strong grasp of both technical and managerial aspects, contributing significantly to innovative solutions in the field. Her focus on driving measurable value and growth through technology underscores her commitment to innovation. She is passionate about leveraging cutting-edge AI solutions to enhance productivity, spur innovation, and capitalize on new opportunities. Hardi also emphasizes lifelong learning, currently pursuing a part-time MBA at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Will Jobs Be Replaced or Merely Changed Forever?
By Hardi Gokani, Director of AI Product management, Grainger and Austin Janke, Manager of Data & Analytics, Nissan Americas
In September 2024, it was reported [1] that 39 percent of Americans aged 18 to 64 have used generative AI—just two years after the release of ChatGPT—with 28 percent indicating they used the tool at work. For context, this is 95 percent faster than adoption rates of the Internet and personal computer (PC), which took two and three years, respectively, to reach an adoption rate of 20 percent. Considering the blistering pace of AI adoption, workers everywhere are asking a fundamental question: will AI simply change my way of working, or will it replace my job all together?
As we try answering this question, one thing is clear—AI will change our way of working. In a joint-study [2] conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Harvard Business School, consultants using generative AI were able to perform certain tasks 25 percent faster, and 40 percent more accurately, than their colleagues who were not using generative AI. These “inside the frontier” tasks spanned a broad spectrum of activity, with some requiring creativity and persuasiveness and others necessitating analytical thinking. As leaders continue seeking ways to increase efficiencies within their organizations, results like these show a clear advantage from incorporating AI into day-to-day work.
The argument for AI changing work is further evidenced within our own experience. At Grainger, customer inventory information is collected to recommend solutions that meet a variety of maintenance, repair, and operational needs. Before the introduction of an AI-powered mobile application, field team members collected and evaluated data manually in Microsoft Excel. This task was tedious and burdensome, often preventing associates from spending time to build meaningful relationships with customers from whom they were receiving the information. By leveraging Computer Vision and AI, associates have been able to reduce data collection time by 50 percent, allowing time to instead be allocated to more meaningful and strategic tasks.
With clarity brought to the question of whether jobs will change from the introduction of AI, the hard question remains—will AI replace jobs all together? This question is a bit tougher, as the answer is both “yes” and “no.” According to a variety of research, the balance of work—rather than the number of jobs—will be impacted most by AI. Harvard Business Review [3] reports that for every five tasks removed from the middle class, 80 percent of them will be moved to lower-wage classes, while the remaining 20 percent will be shifted to high-wage groups. In a separate publication [4] by the World Economic Forum, a shift within the Chinese manufacturing sector was cited, showing a move from low-skilled labor and towards high-skilled labor. We’ve observed a related phenomena within the context of our own work, specifically within automotive supply chains. Albeit a different application, the shift from manual picking to automated retrieval has taken a similar path. As more complex systems and machines are introduced, the need for medium-and-low skilled operators is replaced by a need for highly-skilled, competent professionals to maintain and service the intricate machinery.
With all of this in mind, we would be remiss not to address hiring outlooks when answering the question, “Will AI replace jobs?” According to predictions by the World Economic Forum, the rise of innovative technology will eliminate 85 million jobs by 2025. They continue, however, by stating they expect 97 million new jobs to be brought in by the introduction innovative technologies—a net gain of 12-million jobs overall. Where, though, will these jobs be? In the World Economic Forum survey [4], respondents indicated that they expect to work in AI-linked fields, such as data science and business intelligence. Over the next five years, these and related areas are expected to grow 30-35 percent, with that number approaching 50 percent in controlled states like China. This, in a nutshell, supports the argument that it’s the type of work, not the number of jobs, that will really be changing as AI continues increasing its prevalence in the workplace.
So, will AI merely change our way of working, or will it replace our jobs? Only time will provide the answer. From our perspective, though, it’s clear AI will—and already is—changing our way of working. As rapid adoption continues casting a shadow over the Internet and PC revolutions, users everywhere will continue finding ways to augment daily tasks and shift focus towards more strategic elements of their jobs.
Resources
- Bick, Alexander , Blandin, Adam , and David J. Deming. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, no. 2024-027A (2024). Accessed September 28, 2024.
- Dell’Acqua, Fabrizio, Edward McFowland, Ethan Mollick, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf , Katherine C Kellogg, Saran Rajendran, Lisa Krayer, François Candelon, and Karim R Lakhani. “Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality.” Harvard Business School, September 22, 2023.
- Fleming, Martin. “Ai Is Changing Work - and Leaders Need to Adapt.” Harvard Business Review, March 24, 2020.
- Rayner, Mark. “‘Nearly Half (49%) of Companies Expect Adopting AI to Create Jobs, Well Ahead of the 23% of Respondents Who Expect It to Displace Jobs.’” World Economic Forum, August 14, 2023.